B&E lead story
Damn it!
Is India ignoring a large chunk of population whose livelihood gets affected by big dams?

Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru, the architect of modern India, is credited with calling big dams “the temples of modern India.” He is hailed as the visionary who inculcated scientific temperament into the Indian psyche, overwhelmed with religion and rituals. For Nehru, “size did matter!” He was overawed by the enormity of the engineering marvel, which dams represented. But one cannot blame Nehru for the current ills bestowed on displaced ‘damned’ Indians by successive governments, can one?!Although one would surely desist from a blanket criticism of Nehru’s policies (as many were aimed intellectually and logically towards arming India with industrial infrastructure), it would be difficult, with current day statistics, to support his blind reverence for dams. Unlike what our malevolent governments would wish us to believe, environmental sciences have made the ill-effects of large dams quite undeniable. If numbers could crunch, we guess our report would be smashing!Unfortunately, the lackadaisical attitude of policy-makers in India, as bemoaned by Himanshu Thakkar (of the much respected South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People) to B&E, is evident by the fact that no concerted governmental efforts have been made to find out the efficacy of dams, or on their effects on global warming. According to the mind-numbing Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change study, dams have the potential of 25 times more contribution towards global warming than CO2 emissions. It is estimated that 19% of global warming is caused by dams. Dam construction consumes huge funds, so they said! Astonishingly, according to the report Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision Making by the World Commission on Dams (set up by the World Bank), 3/4th of all the large dams are confined to just five countries in the world! If that hasn’t got your goat, then this would – 2/3rd of all the large dams exist in developing countries!And if the issue is of humans being displaced without recourse, the evidence is, as the cliché goes, damning! The World Bank commission, commenting on the compelling human displacement losses, concludes that “dams have delivered many benefits, but in too many cases, the price paid to secure those benefits has been unacceptable and could have been avoided.” Independent studies have estimated that in India, large dams have displaced between 21 to 40 million people. And the situation has sadly been the same since decades. Even till 1980, estimates state that establishment of dams had submerged 500,000 hectares of forest-land. But of crying shame is the fact that studies now indicate that despite roughly 4,000 odd large dams present in the country, almost two-thirds of irrigated land in India is still shockingly dependent on minor irrigation facilities. However, the Indian authorities defend dams on the grounds that these monolith, yet complex structures, are capable of improving irrigation, enhancing power and helping flood control. Countering the government claims, Arundhati Roy – for however much her vitriol is respected or disrespected in public (due to her own ‘death sentence opposition’ undoing) – subjectively opines, “Irrigation uses up the water you need to produce power. Flood control requires you to keep the reservoir empty during the monsoon months to deal with an anticipated surfeit of water. And if there’s no surfeit, you’re left with an empty dam. And this defeats the purpose of irrigation, which is to store the monsoon water.” Continuing the diatribe, Thakkar spouts to B&E, “Government economists go by flat statistics, blindly taking a snapshot macro or aggregate view of the country. Their pristine method is: If total food grain requirement of the country is this much, then to fulfill that in one go, simply build so many dams! It would be so wonderful if, instead, planning could have commenced from individual water sheds, then to river sheds and finally culminating at the Planning Commission level for the number of dams.”Does this mean that a blanket ban be imposed on building dams? In a more moderate response, Patrick McCully, Executive Director, International Rivers Network, disagrees to B&E, “There shouldn’t be an outright ban. One should be selective in identifying locations and should take care of social and environmental costs.” However, looking at the World Bank’s continuous dilly dallying on the subject, one is forced to question why does the World Bank continue to support such dams, despite being fully aware of the problems created by these structures? The World Bank had been famously forced to stop funding the Narmada project in year 1993. However, a decade later in 2003, the Bank restored its interests in project through its private financial arm IFC, which is now considering supporting the Omkareshwar Dam along the Narmada. The reasons behind the World Bank’s renewed interest is not difficult to discern, as McCully succinctly suggests, “Some sections in the bank and dam industry lobby do play a role in the funding of dams.”Then why are developing economies with scores of social problems considering dams as the ultimate panacea for their growing water & electricity needs? Expressing his opinion, Paul Sinclair, Head of Environment Victoria, Australia, opines, “Building more dams would be a 20th century response to a 21st century problem. We need solutions that restore rivers system & create wealth from conservation.” Clearly, on one hand is the imperative need to support the Indian farmer and to protect India’s food generating machine, and on the other hand, the grim statistic that dams cause more environmental harm than what policy makers believe.And to think about it that the largest industrialised nation of the world, the United States, is now dissuading dam construction and reverting to river restoration, flood-plain recovery by phasing out embankments, wetland revival and the rehabilitation of river eco-systems for fisheries! And why is the US doing that? Swapan Kumar Das, Chairman, Central Water Commission, belligerently shares a contrarian (and quite amusingly confusing) viewpoint for the same to B&E, “After putting up 10,000 dams, the US has stopped, as they don’t have space for more dams. The developed countries don’t want developing countries to come to their level with enhanced production through dams.” And one thought the US had one of the largest geographical expanses in this world! Oh well... you must be right Sir, and we must be wrong... Damn it!
The agony of Aswan!
One of the worst cases of dam failures bringing about misery of a nation is that of the Aswan Dam, built on Nile River, Egypt, in the year 1902. The dam flooded Nubia region, displacing over 90,000 people. Lake Nasser, the reservoir created by the dam, has flooded archaeological sites. The silt carried by the river is now held behind by the dam, reducing the water-storage capacity of Lake Nasser. Poor irrigation practices and waterlogged soil contributed to salt deposits on the surface. Fishing has sharply declined. The Aswan increases the salinity of Mediterranean Sea, affecting the Mediterranean’s outflow into Atlantic Ocean. The dam’s effect on this outflow speeds up processes that could lead to the next ice age.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

14.6.2007

B&E lead story
Biodiversity Plan
Is India missing the woods for the trees by ignoring its vast & varied natural inheritance? Do we need a more viable & robust plan to take care of our biodiversity?

Years ago, when it was not so politically correct to talk about climate change, Mahatma Gandhi had the vision to say, “The Earth has enough to satisfy everybody’s need but not anyone’s greed.” When man’s endeavour to survive & fulfil its need took the giant leap to go for a no-holds-barred drive of greed, it set on a fast-track move towards devouring the golden goose (read: nature) that laid the egg for him. So much so, that human activity has increased the extinction rate (of life) by at least 100 times compared to the natural rate. Harvard Biologist E. O. Wilson estimated that Earth is currently losing about 30,000 species per year. It’s estimated that nature gives to humanity $16-54 trillion worth of ‘services’ to humans per year. Scientists estimate that between US$20-25 billion needs to be spent every year to achieve effective conservation of life forms on Earth. At the 1992 Earth Summit – in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity was signed. It is the single most important global agreement designed to protect & develop our planet’s biodiversity. India, one of the signatories to the convention is required to come out with National Biodiversity Strategy & Action Plan (NBSAP). The NBSAP, which is likely to come up for Cabinet approval shortly, observes that main harm to biodiversity in India is from destruction of habitat. It states that nearly 50% of the aquatic plants of the world are recorded from Indian subcontinent, but only few have been studied in detail. Moreover, about 150 crops feed most of the human population at present, but just 12 of them provide 80% of food energy. Landraces, grown traditionally by farming communities through generations, locally adapted obsolete cultivars and their wild relatives comprise crop genetic resources. Alarm bells are ringing as narrow genetic base means more vulnerability to epidemics. A large number of over 300,000 samples of these cultivars, kept under long term storage in the National Gene Bank, have gone out of cultivation. About 30 mammalian and bird species are used extensively, but just 15 of them cause over 90% of global livestock production and of the many well known, about 140 native breeds of farm livestock and poultry, are facing threat to survival.Even though forestry is the second largest land use in India after agriculture, covering approximately 23.57% (recorded forest area) of the total geographical area, the contribution to the Gross Domestic Product from forestry & logging was 1.1% in 2001. An estimated 41% of the country’s forest cover has been degraded. As much as 78% of forest area is subject to heavy grazing. NTFPs (non-timber forest products) contribute to over 75% of total forest export revenue, and add income of about 30% ruralites. But, getting maximum utilisation from our forests is hampered by lack of inventory data or value addition, weak forestry information system and inadequate space for private participation. Of India’s over 6,500 medicinal plants species, nearly 90% of those in trade are harvested from the wild. In India, conservation biological studies are scant mainly because of the lack of expertise on specific groups, lack of funding to work on groups having only scientific importance and lack of coordination in exchanging data. Not to be missed out is India’s strong base of indigenous knowledge on various aspects of biodiversity. The document states that documentation of traditional knowledge available in our ancient texts is being undertaken by NISCAIR, in the form of a computerised database, Traditional Knowledge Digital Library (TKDL). The document calls for factoring in natural resource accounting (NRA) in the national economic planning processes. The Act provides for establishment of a National Biodiversity Authority (NBA), State Biodiversity Boards (SBBs) and Biodiversity Management Committees (BMCs) at local levels. The Act also stipulates preparation of People’s Biodiversity Registers (PBRs) by the BMCs.
However, Ashish Kothari of Kalpavriksh (Kalpavriksh was asked by the government to provide technical support for preparing the action plan) told B&E, “Our main problem with this action plan is that it more or less ignores the final draft plan that we had given in late 2003, to Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF). Thereafter, MoEF with some modifications (mostly minor), gave it to the UNDP, in 2004. Additionally, the strategies given in this current document are about 50% the same as given in a 1999, MoEF document called the Macro-Strategy on Biodiversity.” Also Dr. Suman Sahai of Gene Campaign, echoed Kothari’s, view, and told B&E,“Loopholes have been put up in the plan document to cater to commercial interests.” On the issue of private participation, T. Manoharan of World Wide Fund for Nature- India, told B&E, “Though the plan invites private participation in biodiversity. The extent of their being permitted in biological resources is sensitive. The plan doesn’t specify the areas and levels of their involvement in country’s biodiversity. Moreover, the plan calls for giving economic valuation to biological resources. But, who will value it?” Noted environmentalist Vandana Shiva further added, “Agriculture as been kept out of biological intellectual property rights in the document.” Commenting on biological intellectual property being left open for corporates, Chairman, National Biodiversity Authority, S. Kannaiyan, told B&E, “The corporates will have to observe international agreement of beneficiary & would have to return part benefits to local communities, from whom they extract nature’s information.” The plan has been successful in giving a formal and national level starting point for endeavours towards appreciation of the unity in diversity of life in India. But, our understanding of causes of loss of biodiversity is limited, as is the assessment of the consequences of such a loss for the functioning of ecosystems.Time is no longer waiting for us to translate words into action, for we are on to being extinct on Earth. Evidences reveal that there have been at least five major extinctions of life in the past 500 million years on Earth. “Only 10% of world’s species survived the third mass extinction. Will any survive this one?” asks Niles Eldredge, a paleontologist & author of the book, The Sixth Extinction.

Resurrecting the lost pride
We are only busy with the trinity of the big cats – tiger, lion & leopard and in contemporary India, the best known of the non-roaring big cats – the Cheetah, who are fastest land animal, has been forgotten. It can reach speeds between 112 km/h & 120 km/h and can accelerate from 0 to 110 km/h in three seconds, faster than most of the modern racing cars. Its hunting prowess attracted nobility, through 5,000 years, to keep it with them, & it was this practice, which has cornered it to few corners of the world, as it is biologically weak to breed in captivity. Moreover, growing human & livestock population caused reduction in Cheetahs’ habitat and that was major reason of it being extinct in India, since 1952. Cheetah is also in World Conservation Union (IUCN) list of vulnerable species. 90% cheetahs are now in Namibia & Botswana. “Earth is left with just 12,000 Cheetahs,” Dr. Divyabhanusinh, an authority on Cheetahs in India, told B&E. But, can’t Cheetahs be rehabilitated in India? In 100-200 sq. kms. of grassland, with sufficient prey base & vegetation, Cheetahs can be rehabilitated, Sinh said, adding that he had studied empty DNA of Indian Cheetahs and Botswana Cheetahs and they are same. Then, their Cheetahs can be rehabilitated in India. “Cheetahs can be brought from Botswana, where their growing numbers are harming human’s interests,” said Sinh. “The Narayan Sarovar in Kutch, holds the potential for introduction of the lost specie,” said Dr. Yadvendra Dev Jhala of Wildlife Insitiute of India. “Lack of money isn’t hampering rehabilitation of Cheetahs in India, it’s absence of political will,” said Sinh.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

13.12.2007

BHUTAN: ELECTIONS
King’s democracy not 100%
Only graduates were permitted to cast their votes in polls

Last week when voting for the 47-member National Assembly took place, the results took everyone by surprise, candidates and the public included. The Bhutan Peace and Prosperity Party (dpt) won a whopping 45 of the 47 seats, while its rival Peoples’ Democratic Party (pdp) floundered in the polls, winning only two seats. For a state holding its first ever election, the results could not have been more dramatic or lopsided. "These elections are a farce. They were staged when a movement of true democracy confronted the monarch of Bhutan,” says Deki Yangzom, a pro-democracy activist, working from exile in Nepal, adding: “The king admitted that but for this movement for democracy, he would have continued as monarch.” For the period of elections, the monarch had ordered his Prime Minister, Jigme Y. Thinley, to resign and set up the DPT. While the DPT is all set to form a government, the bickering refuses to die down. PDP leaders and spokesmen have since then targeted the DPT for rigging the elections, including the charge that voting machines were tampered with. They also allege that civil servants "unduly" influenced the polls leading to such a one-sided results.Thinley Penjore, President, Druk National Congress told B&E the elections were grossly unfair. Other activists and NGOs are equally miffed. Devendra Raj Pandey, member of South Asians for Human Rights told B&E: “As one-sixth Bhutan’s population is refugee, only graduates could contest elections and only two parties allowed to contest elections, in which dissent wasn't permitted. What is very distressing, says Pandey, "is the insensitivity of government, civil society and media of India towards bringing about 100% democracy in Bhutan."

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

17.4.2008

B&E lead story
Indian Railways?!?
Does Laloo really deserve all the accolades for engineering a ‘turn around’ of railways? Are the surplus figures quoted in his budget speech the true reflection of the progress achieved?

“A few years back, Laloo used to shout at the top of his voice that he will not allow the privatisation of Railways – same Laloo Prasad Yadav is now the chief proponent of outsourcing even the core functions of railways,” says Gopal Krishna, a trade union leader with Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) in a conversation with B&E. “And all this talk about outsourcing & PPP (public-private partnership) is a euphemism for privatisation,” the union leader critically added. One may agree or disagree with the CITU leader, however, what one cannot deny is that PPP is the new mantra of Indian Railways (IR), being chanted with great devotion & fervour. Yes, over the past few years, a discernable shift in the IR mindset has become apparent. A fertile ground is being diligently laid to transform the behemoth into a dynamic & agile organisation, capable of optimally utilising its assets to enhance profits. Now, the big question is: does this new found love to increase private participation in IR affairs, clash with its social objectives? “It is not correct to view IR as just a corporate body or having corporate functions. It is a part of social fabric of the country, having a far greater role than just meeting economic needs of the country,” Y. P. Anand, former Chairman, Railway Board told B&E. But how does an organisation meet its social obligations, if it continues to operate in the red for years on end? With operation ratio plummeting from 82.6 % in 1994-95 to 98% in 2001 & with staff pensions & salaries accounting for 44% of the total revenues earned in 2004-05, IR was indeed mired in a mess towards the beginning of the 21st century. It was in no position to honour its commitment to pay dividends to the government. A pall of gloom had spread along the 64,000 kms railway networks & 7,000 stations across the nation. It is perhaps these dark hovering clouds of bankruptcy, which led the government appointed Rakesh Mohan Committee to recommend massive ‘structural changes’ for IR, suggesting privatisation as the panacea for the ailing gargantuan.“Rakesh Mohan would see the issue purely through liberal economist’s view while Indian Railways is a body which is representative of Indian population,” added Y. P. Anand. Since the very word ‘privatisation’ was not considered to be politically correct, the report was obviously put on the back-burner – a via media was sought to turn things around in the IR – chaperon in the private actors, desperately seeking to enjoy a share of pie in this rather large organisation- accounts for 2.3% of its GDP and owns roughly 45,000 hectares of idle land. And what followed this decision to drop privatisation & introduce PPP, is now history. A big media campaign was launched hailing the Railway Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav as the messiah, who through his sheer management skills, had turned around an almost bankrupt public sector enterprise into a profit earning corporation. (In 2007-08 budget, IR generated a surplus of $4.5 billion or Rs.200 billion on revenue of $16 billion. Astonishingly, the revenue & surplus targets for 2007-08 stands at whopping $ 18 billion & $5 billion respectively.) However, Laloo’s tryst with surpluses seems to nearing an end. The recent media reports & Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India’s indictment of the IR’s accounting procedures have revealed that at least Rs.26.89 billion (roughly 13%) have been reflected in the 2006-07 surplus figures not because of any increase in the business, but primarily because of altered accounting policy adopted by IR. Had this 13% not been added the ‘surplus’ figures would have been much closer to what was achieved during the 2005-06 period. And this would certainly have prevented Laloo from receiving accolades from top B-schools across the globe. The question is: did Laloo encourage fudging of figures or was he assisted by the MNCs to pave the way for private entry? Private players too should be held responsible because the IR ‘turn around’ is being celebrated as the victor of PPP. Needless to add that in any partnership both the brickbats & the accolades must be equally shared.
It is a widely known, since Independence, scores of IR functions have been performed by contractors, then why this clamour about private participation now? “IR have a natural monopoly over rail sector in India. The private sector is not enthusiastic in venturing into rail industry.” Anwarul Hoda, member, Planning Commission, told B&E. Endorsing the view, N. M. Balasubrahmanyam, Secretary General, Chartered Institute of Logistics & Transport, told B&E. “A lot of investment is needed by a company, which requires a good return, as good a return as in other industries. Hence, privatisation isn’t likely to take off in a big way in India,” Not withstanding the comments, the fact is that both the MNCs and the domestic private players are queuing up to grab the IR contracts both in core & non-core sectors. As opposed to the innocuous contractors’ of the yesteryears’– the fear about the present day private contractors results from the enormity of contracts (see box – IR is seeking investment to the tune of Rs.3,500 billion, in 11th Five Year Plan).Only fools would oppose improvement in financial viability & health of an organisation & therefore, its capacity to meet its social responsibility. But if the process of improving the bottomline is undertaken in a dubious manner; paying scant regard to the long-term sustainability of the reform process, credibility of the participating actors takes a nosedive. Then, whether you name the process as privatisation, PPP or simply an effort for public good, it is bound to be opposed tooth & nail by the public.the ppp bullet – major contractsl Bombardier Transportation (US), – $33.68 million to set up a plant to make rail cars in Vadodara. l GE Equipment Services – has picked up 15% equity stake in Titagarh Wagons. GEES is likely to build & operate wherewithal for maintenance of wagons and signalling equipment. GE is getting into a joint venture with IR for production of diesel locomotives.l Consortium of RITES (India) – PCI (Japan) - PBI (USA) - SYSTRA (France) – $52.36 million order to provide general consultancy services to Bangalore Metro Rail. lL&T, Adani Logistics, Boxtrans Logistics, Gateway Rail Freight, Innovative B2B Logistics Solutions, Reliance Infrastructure also in the fray.

B&E edit bureau: Atul Bhardwaj (inputs by Rajeev Kumar Singh)

4.10.2007

ELECTION SCENARIO: PAKISTAN
Is Pakistan Musharraf’s own country?
Chances of united democratic alliance against Musharraf are remote

Till date there hasn’t been any election in Pakistan without rigging, says Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, India. If this is a fact, then one more truth, which emerges from the current turmoil in Pakistan is that “never before in history of Pakistan, it’s civil society was so keen for elections,” Prof. Uma Singh, Centre for South Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, told B&E. And Benazir Bhutto’s brutal assassination was perhaps the beginning of the rigging. It disturbed, as Saeed Naqvi, Editor, World Report, a syndication service on foreign affairs, said, “the arrangement, in which Pervez Musharraf was to be president; Kayani, army chief, and Benazir, PM; as was fixed by the US.” Uma Singh said, “Only after the US gave the green signal, did Benazir returned to Pakistan & she never was critical of the US (in her election campaign).” But Benazir’s death has made her Pakistan People’s Party, like a ship without a captain. Asif Zardari, Benazir’s husband, Co-chairman of the party, is not very popular, opposed by some PPP leaders; and her only son, Bilawal, hasn’t finished his formal education. In such a situation, Asif Ali Zardari has designated Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Vice-Chairman of PPP as prime ministerial candidate. “Fahim has run the PPP in Pakistan during Benazir’s absence and didn’t show political ambitions,” Pattanaik told B&E. The elections have been postponed to February 18 for various reasons. Naqvi feels that PPP & Nawaz Sharif’s party, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) might come together for the election. But, PPP, with Nawaz Sharif, won’t be compatible to the US. And, for that matter, neither to Musharraf.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh
24.1.2008

4Ps Business & Marketing magazine
Of bombs and ‘bull’ets
Benazir’s death may have a crippling effect on Pakistan’s economy

The death of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto saw stocks markets’ globally take the worst hit since December 11, 2007. Here’s the list of casualties... Dow Jones plunged 1.4%; Hang Seng was down by 1.1%; KOSPI (South Korea) shed 0.6%; the Sanghai Composite lost 0.89%; S&P ASX (Australia) tanked 0.2%. Markets in Pakistan resumed trading after a three day halt and hastily lost massive 4.7% (as on Dec 31, 2007). Well, if markets are anything to go by then such a huge correction in Karachi, which has been one of the best performing markets in the region with 40% plus appreciation in the last 12 months, confirms some rude implications for the country’s markets and its economy. However, the death of a former prime minister of a Third World country, in itself, is not as catastrophic an event that would cause any major disruptions to global stocks. It was instead the expected deterioration of law and order, potential of a civil war kind of situation that might arise in a nuclear weapons-armed Pakistan, coupled with the weakening of institutions in the country that actually sparked off the fears among global investors. “The big takeaway from this horrible event is that Pakistan could slide into a civil war of sorts,” reveals Win Thin, senior currency strategist, Brown Brothers Harriman. And if the horrible incident leads to a kind of a disconnect between Pakistan and the US, it may spell more trouble for Pakistan’s economy, which is still dependent on America in terms of foreign aid and trade. So, if the combination happens, the stupendous performance of the Pakistan economy would come to a screeching halt. As a result of economic reforms initiated by General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan has attracted foreign capital. Any further economic turbulence would ward off these inflows.S&P’s Ratings Services said that Pakistan’s credit rating could be lowered, if the assassination of Benazir Bhutto precipitates heightened levels of violence and political turmoil. “The prevailing negative outlook on the ratings of Pakistan encapsulates to a large extent the possible risks to the political process, including attempts on the life of political leaders after a number of such past incidents. However, a further weakening of Pakistan’s institutions, in conjunction with rising levels of violence and disorder, and the postponement of the January 8 elections would lead to a rating downgrade,” said Agost Benard, Primary Credit Analyst, S&P. Many would see this event as only the death of democracy, but it would easily turn out to be the death of one of the most promising markets also.

4Ps Business & Marketing edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

17.1.2008

INDO-US NUCLEAR DEAL: BURN’S RESIGNATION
The deal wouldn’t ‘Burn’ away
Even without Nicholas the deal will see through, but it may dilute the process a bit

While the Indian Left is hell-bent on seeing the Indo-US nuclear deal die its natural death – the rightist forces led by some religious groups in the US are launching a campaign against the deal on the grounds that it goes against the US non-proliferation goals & strengthens India’s strategic options. In addition, the recent resignation of US’ Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the Chief Architect of the 123 agreement sent shivers down the Indian strategic community. However, the fears were short-lived – Nicholas will continue as the Special Envoy on the nuclear deal till at least the end of the Bush Administration. The ongoing safeguards negotiations between the India administration & the IAEA are reported to be moving in a positive direction. The IAEA is considering India’s concerns regarding ‘disruption in fuel supplies & also ‘non-intrusive inspections’ – leaving its defence nuclear reactors outside the purview of inspections. However, it is difficult to say that any kind of agreement with the IAEA will be acceptable to the Indian Left, especially because their opposition is to the Indo-US nuclear deal & not really against the de-nuclearisation of India.Taking Prakash Karat’s statement on January 21 into account, it seems that the deal is unlikely. But, Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar, former Director, IDSA, adds, “Even if Indian Communists oppose the deal and pull down the government, then the next Congress or BJP government will have to face India’s nuclear reality of shortage of fuel and nuclear isolation and will carry though the deal.” On the success of the deal, post-Burns, Ajay Lele, Research Fellow, Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, (IDSA) India, said, “Nicholas Burns, before resigning has said that they have done as much as they could and won’t be making any more concessions. The fructification of deal will depend on how Congress is able to manoeuvre Indian Communists.”

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

7.2.2008

SUBPRIME: SWISS BANK
From subprime to ‘near prime’
Financial viruses spreads to the EU

After the US, it’s Europe, & in Europe, after Société Générale, it’s UBS, the largest Swiss bank is latest victim of the most dreaded & infamous 21st century financial shark, commonly identified as the ‘subprime’. UBS has recently announced writing-off $4 billion worth of securities as part of its plans to absorb subprime losses. Earlier in October, the bank had written down $3.6 billion in value of its mortgage-backed securities, & then, in December, it further wrote-off $10 billion. Now the problem will spread because of “near prime mortgages,” said Simon Adamson, Senior Analyst, CreditSights, a London based independent credit research firm, to B&E, adding, “UBS’ main trouble is with Monoline (bond insurance), ALT-A mortgages, Fico & CDO (Collateralised Debt Obligation). This is not end of the story, as banks are not coming clear about their exposure to such instruments; it’s difficult to forecast nature & amount of the crises.” Both Swiss Federal Banking Commission & US Securities & Exchange Commission intend to ascertain if the UBS had booked inflated prices for mortgage bonds despite knowing their values had dipped. UBS, on its part, disapproves any special audit of itself. UBS AG has appealed its shareholders to vote its proposal for a 13 billion Swiss franc ($11.94 billion) capital increase through the sale of a convertible bond.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

21.2.2008

RAJASTHAN: GUJJAR AGITATION
Envy, jealousy personified!
The politics of fragmentation will only make resolution of disputes more difficult in future

“The Gujjars have not abandoned their cause, we have only made a tactical retreat, only to bounce back if the Rajasthan government continues to hoodwink us with false promises,” says Vikram Singh, a graduate Gujjar working in Delhi. This new found love for a cause among the Gujjar community in Rajasthan and adjoining regions in North India is not to upgrade their status in the caste hierarchy. Ironically, the Gujjars (presently in Other Backward Caste (OBC) list) ,desire to be downgraded to the Schedule Tribes (ST) list.The Gujjars perceive that the competition (for jobs and other benefits) among the communities in ST list is not as intense, as it is among the castes belonging to the OBC category. Therefore, the Meena community (included in the ST list) has moved up the economic ladder at a faster pace; leaving the Gujjars behind. It is primarily this envy, coupled with jealousy, which led the Gujjars to react with malice in the recent weeks. Now, the very fact that the Meenas too have come out on the streets to prevent the Gujjars’ entry into the much revered ST list, goes to depict that the cultural upliftment movement is slowly but gradually developing into an ethnic conflict. The Gujjar-Meena clash is likely to become a major election issue in Rajasthan assembly elections, scheduled one-and-a-half years from now. “Another political reason for Gujjar outrage is the fear that the Dausa parliamentary seat is likely to be placed as a ST reserved constituency. This would deprive the Gujjars of the lone stronghold. Moreover, the Meenas represent one of the three reserved tribal parliamentary constituencies while Bheel Meenas have two in Lok Sabha. The Dausa seat would double Meena representation in the Parliament,” explained Dr. Bhawani Singh, retired HoD, Political Science, Rajasthan University, while talking to B&E. Moreover, seats in legislatures are reserved for STs only and not for the OBCs.Apart from politics, economics too is one of the chief drivers of the current outrage. “Gujjars, basically cattle herders, (Russel and Hira Lal in their 1920 book – Tribes and Castes of Northern India – had mentioned Gujjars to be a tribe. They are categorised as tribes in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand) are denied cattle grazing rights in territories which fall under the purview of other state governments. Moreover, due to large chunks of grazing lands being encroached for development activities; settling the dam displaced, and for ‘jatropha’ (used for production of bio-fuel) cultivation, the paucity of land is beginning to pinch the Gujjars,” said M. S. Rathore of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur, in a tête-a-tête with B&E. Furthermore, “With the Tribal Land Rights bill on the anvil, the Gujjars know that they will be eligible for tribal land only if they fall in the ST category,” added Dr. Rajiv Gupta, a Rajasthan University Sociologist, in a chat with B&E. “To qualify for ST, the community’s livelihood should depend on forest resources, must be living in forests or in its vicinity and its deities mustn’t be Hindu gods and goddesses or it should practice local religion. Gujjars don’t have these attributes,” said Udit Raj in a chat with B&E. As economic hardships accentuate and opportunities begin to dwindle, the conflict between communities, to garner a major share in the pie, will aggravate. This hiatus will get further widened by politicians’ lust for power. This greed weaves an intricate and complex web of categorisation for reservation, which gathers gain only for the creamy layer, pushing the more backward further down the social & economic ladder. But for policy-makers in India, the real matter of shame is the manner in which genuine criteria like economic status and merit are being ignored while the flames of caste prejudice are being allowed to fan across the country. But then, what else could you expect from them?!

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

28.6.2007

BANGLADESH: POLITICAL TURMOIL
Now you see it...
...now you don't! Democracy still a mirage for Bangladesh

It is not only the floods and droughts that cause havoc in Bangladesh. Politics too is capable of causing chaos at a decent enough scale to keep the country in a constant state of flux. For more than three decades after independence from Pakistan, the tiny South Asian nation has been struggling to establish a viable democracy based on the rule of law. The latest in the series of misfortunes afflicting Bangladesh relates to the stalling of the election process. Thanks to that, the very survival of the political parties and democracy is at stake.The army-backed puppet caretaker government, headed by former Central Bank chief Fakhruddin Ahmed, added a fresh dimension to the existing political turmoil by asking the political chiefs and the former prime ministers belonging to the two prominent political parties to seek exile in foreign land. Both the Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party chief Khaleda Zia were being urged to remain permanently out of the country. However, intense international pressure made the emergency government retract this undemocratic decision. The net result is that Hasina, who was stranded in London for more than a week, is now permitted to return. And bizarre is the word that one would use to describe the working of the interim government, which just doesn't have the mandate to take such sweeping decisions. That such ad-hocism could ignite the simmering discontent was totally ignored by the authorities. Sanjay Bhardwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University told B&E, “In their urge to get back the lost power, the two parties might get into a street-centric political system." Those who understand the Bangladesh military, are hardly surprised at the current political impasse. The so-called government is merely acting as a handmaiden of the army, which intends to keep the entire polity under a tight leash. In order to avoid opprobrium from the international community, the army is using the interim government's shoulder to fire the shots. The primary aim of the army behind curtailing politicians' powers is to perpetuate a military dictatorship. And this precisely is the worry among the analysts, who feel that the army will demonise the political class to an extent that people will have no choice but to accept the junta as a fait accompli. Ayesha Kabeer, Editor at Probe, a news magazine in Bangladesh, told B&E, “The two parties are weakening and the leadership struggle might split them.”But this is not to suggest that the politicians being booted are above board. It is a sad story that for the past 35 years, the two political dynasties of Bangladesh have been milking the country dry (it''s estimated that the two dynasties have been amassing wealth at the rate of about $5 billion a year, over the past 15 years, through their corrupt practices). The mendicancy of these politicians has reached such heights that foreign aid (to the tune of $40 billion) is estimated to have been siphoned off over the past three decades. To obliterate the rampant greed inherent in the system, the government now plans to launch a “new brand” of democracy to encourage & promote competent people like Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus into the political arena. Although the intention is good, the methodology being adopted is far from satisfactory. While some moves of this government are appreciated, a consensus building approach is critical. At this rate, the country is slated to be either moving towards a ruthless dictatorship or total anarchy with no "Mukti Bahini" in sight.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh
17.5.2007

PRESIDENTIAL POLLS: CYPRUS
Reunification on the cards

A Communist president for the first time

It was the desire for unification of Greek Cyprus & Turkish Cyprus, which resulted in victory of AKEL party’s Demetris Christofias in Cyprus’ presidential polls & the advent of communist rule for the first time in the tiny nation & of course the only Communist state in the 27 member EU . “The battle of ballots has someway punished the outgoing Papadopoulos, who was seen as instrumental in scuttling the May 2004 plebiscite, held according to Kofi Annan plan,” said A. K. Mahapatra, Professor at SIS, JNU. Moreover, recent independence of Kosovo also acted as a catalyst towards unification demand picking up momentum & hence, voting out Papadopoulos, who was seen as a hardliner against unification.In 1974 the country was divided between the Greek-Cypriot south and Turkish-Cypriot north, leaving behind a great void in national psyche. “The main hurdle for the unification is the fear of Greek Cypriots, due to presence of about 30,000 Turkish troops in northern Cyprus,” adds Mahapatra. Apart from unifying the nation, the other main agenda of the new government is to bring back the displaced Greek Cypriots to Turkish Republic Northern Cyprus and helping them to reclaim their properties. The rise of the communists, however, has raised some fears about the nationalisation drive, which Christofias may initiate. The experts on the other hand argue that there is very little that Christofias can do towards nationalisation of the national resources, mainly because the main economic assets - tourism, shipping and off-shore banking – are such, that they can’t be nationalised and have to be left free to float in the market.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh

20.3.2008

SARABJIT CASE: PAKISTAN
Black warrant
Preceding incidents work against his release

Will Sarabjit Singh go down the gallows or get to return to India? His case got badly jeopardised, “as Kashmir Singh, an Indian citizen, who was arrested by Pakistan, for spying against them, after his release, went about saying in India that he had engaged in spying for India in Pakistan, which went down badly against the Pakistan government in that country,” said Prof. Uma Singh, Project Coordinator, Special Area Studies Programme on Pakistan Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Another case, which is working against Sarabjit, is that recently, a Pakistani national, Khalid Mehmood, died in Indian custody, after being arrested, as Indian government contends, he was in possession of suspicious documents while Pakistan authorities contend that he went to India only to watch India-Pakistan cricket tourney. Adding to this unfavorable atmosphere is that there are at least 50 Pakistanis, awaiting the hangman’s noose, after being charged with various terrorism related acts in Pakistan, and Sarabjit’s clemency would set a bad precedent. But there could be hope for Sarabjit, as an Indian government source said, when asked about the certainty of his hanging, “Has the black warrant been issued?” “It wouldn’t affect Indo-Pak relations as prisoners, a perennial problem between the two, have never affected it,” Singh said.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh
3.4.2008

LOW COST HOUSING: INDIA INC.
Bottoms up approach...
...to building India and making it look beautiful

Nano has shown to the auto industry that “there exists a fortune at the bottom of the pyramid.” But why aren’t others taking a cue from management guru C. K. Prahalad’s wisdom & of course, the inspirational work of the British born Indian architect late Laurie Baker? “ I don’t think that the real estate sector is thinking of any low cost housing projects. This is mainly because the land & construction costs are too high for any builder to venture into this arena. The problem can be met by greater public-private participation only,” says Alok Agrrawal, Principal Sun Apollo, a private equity fund, with expertise in reality sector. More importantly, “The homeless or poor have to be involved in the process that leads to their having homes,” says Pratima Joshi, Director of Shelter Associates, an NGO into housing homeless. She adds, “Occupants of government’s housing scheme for the poor, Valmiki Ambedkar Awas Yojana, weren’t satisfied with the dwellings given to them. If dwelling schemes served to them, doesn’t suit them, they will slide back to slums.” Perhaps, it is the jaded mindset in the industry, which prevents them from looking at the bottom of the pyramid. Otherwise, what stops the reality sector from building low cost houses for India’s 170 million slum dwellers? The companies should not totally leave the un-glamorous jobs to the government. Such efforts will only add sheen to their corporate face; and make them better corporate citizens.

B&E edit bureau: Rajeev Kumar Singh
7.2.2008

B&E 2007 year end issue on 'Dynasties' dated 10/01/2008

Bush fires in Iraq and rest of the world

Bush dynasty continues to ambush planet’s march to peace, prosperity & sustainability

It is a dynasty that is said to have endeavoured to convert God gifted planet into a la ‘Bush Dynasty Inc.’. The US & the rest of the human populace have been at the receiving end of Bush Sr. & Jr., as both have indulged in bloody-misdemeanor from one to another, with Iraq being their favourite playground. Both went about the same way in their presidencies. One doesn’t know whom to credit for, the Bush family’s efficient publicity and manoeuvers, or US voters’ gullibility, that father and son have been President of the USA and went on to become the only family in US history where a Bush brother, John Ellis “Jeb” Bush, was Governor of a state (Florida) while another was simultaneously President of the United States. Two of senior Bush’s sons were able to get two terms, while the Sr. had to retire with only one. With oil being the family business, the Bush, without specs, gave human history, the most corporatised war (in ousting Saddam). The family has enhanced its political and economic fortunes, but both Bush prezs’ arrogance have meted out depression to the US and the world economy. Will Bush family’s effort to levearge politics for their business end with Bush Jr.’s term in 2008 or another sibling would rise to make business from conflicts on Earth?

The North-Korean kith & Kim

It is simply monarchy in the garb of Marxism. North Koreans are not proletariats but subjects of the Kim dynasty

Kim-Il-sung, former North Korean President, died in 1994, paving the way for his son, Kim Jong-il, to inherit all of his powers & money. Jong deftly elbowed all other potential successors, mainly by flattering his father and amplifying the cult of personality, making people honour his father as a deity. After Sung’s death, Sung was designated ‘Eternal President’, that is, not just president for life but for eternity. Jong hasn’t declared himself President. He is not constitutionally required to hold elections to legitimise his presidency and hasn’t done so. His designation of chairman of National Defense Commission was declared to be “the highest post of the state” in 1998. Officially both the father and son are communists and expected to leave a Spartan life for the sake of proletariat which they represent, but they are nowhere close to communism, running North-Korea as their personal fiefdom. It is said that Kim built nuclear weapons not for the nation but to use it as political & economic tool to get benefits from the US, not for his people but to fill his own coffers & ensure the perpetuity of his mis-rule. Such a government is nothing but monarchy.

Hand in glove with Pak Army

Despite all odds, the Bhuttos refuse to bow out

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the Pakistani leader in the 1970s was well ensconced in the seat of power, until his protégé, Zia-ul Haq, ousted him through a coup, got him hanged & succeeded him. It was poetic justice when Zulfi’s daughter, Benazir Bhutto, became premier, after Zia’s death. It was the death of Benazir’s two brothers that ensured that there was no contest against her to acquire father’s political inheritance. Zulfi is credited for resurrecting Pakistani pride, after losing a war to India. Benazir, has failed to establish democracy in her country. She is accused of being corrupt and her husband, Asif Zardari, is labelled as ‘Mr.10%’.

Make hay till the family shines

Syria’s & al-Assad family’s fate seem to be intricately intertwined

Syria is a state where country’s fate is in the hands of a family. The present president, Bashar al-Assad, took over from his father, Hafez al-Assad. Though, initially, Bashar had few political aspirations. His father had been grooming Bashar’s elder brother, Basil al-Assad, to be the future president. However, Basil’s death in an automobile accident in 1994, made Bashar his father’s heir. Upon his father’s death in 2000, Bashar was elected President unopposed, after Syria’s Majlis Al Shaa’b (Parliament) voted to lower minimum age for candidates from 40 to 34 (Bashar was 34, then). Several close family members of Hafez al-Assad have held positions within the government, since his rise to power. Most of the al-Assad and Makhlouf families have also grown tremendously wealthy, and parts of that fortune have reached their Alawite tribe in Qardaha and its vicinity.

Working for a noble cause

Pachauri has punctured laziness on climate change

This year, Rajendra K. Pachauri, renowned energy economist and head of the UN, Intergovernmetal Panel on Climate Change did India proud by making the Norwegian Nobel Committee acknowledge his organisation’s yeoman service to mankind & award it the Nobel Prize. Pachauri played a crucial role in getting about 2,500 scientists from across the globe, to bring out four reports on effects of climate change on our planet. Towards end of the year, he was instrumental in making the heads of governments of 188 countries, including the US, think seriously, on saving Earth.

Greening up the world & UN

Ban quietly begins to make his mark on Earth

It was the year which saw, an Asian, complete his first year in ‘world’s most impossible job’ - as his predecessor Kofi Annan, described the job, while handing over reins to eighth Secretary General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, of South Korea. The year, he said, didn’t give him the honeymoon, which his predecessors got, as he went about the task of making progress on Millennium Development Goals, the crisis of genocide in Darfur and of Iraq. It has been said that the big powers wanted him as they wanted an ineffective and inactive person at the helm of the world body. But belying all Western expectations, the Korean has been effective in getting world’s rulers to business on climate change issue. The real task most wanted him to set out on was, as he said, “The reform of the UN, which has been put off for the past 60 years, must be carried out in earnest.” He further needs to see through the Millennium Development Goals, to make the world better, by 2015. He is also expected to promote multi-lateralism & ensure that US unilateralism is not allowed to checkmate global institutions & regulations.